Technical analysis on How Election postponement will precipitate a constitutional crisis and engender National CHAOS(must see) - NAIRALEAK

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Technical analysis on How Election postponement will precipitate a constitutional crisis and engender National CHAOS(must see)

.Okoi Obono-oblaconduct elections into the Office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria; Offices of the 36 States Governors in the Country; the National and State Assemblies and Chairmanship of the Six Area Councils of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, is the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Accordingly, INEC acting within the ambit of the exclusive power vested on it by the Section 25 (5) of the Electoral Act fixed Saturday the 14th Day of February, 2015, as the date for the holding of election into the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the National Assembly respectively.
INEC as stipulated by the provisions of Section 25 (3) & (7) also scheduled election to the Office of the Governors of 32 States (save Edo, Osun, Ondo and Bayelsa States) on the 28th February, 2015.
Consequently INEC started the preparation in earnest for the conduct of the election with commencement of Registration of Voters, Revision of the National Voters Register and the Opening of Campaigns by Political Parties after their submission of Lists of Candidates.
However, the signal that the Federal Government of Nigeria doesn’t want election to hold on the 14th February, 2015, started emerging when some group of ‘Analysts’ led by Yinka Odunmakin appeared (apparently on sponsored programme on African Independent Television – AIT) 3 (three) weeks ago to canvass for the postponement of election on the ground that millions of voters had not collected their Permanent Voters Card (PVC).
Another reason which the Proponents of shift in election date gave is the crisis in the North Eastern Region of the Country that has led to the death of hundreds of people and the displacement of millions of people in that part of the Country.
The agitation by these ‘Analysts’ did not gain the currency or attention of Nigerians until the following week when the National Security Adviser, Colonel Sambo Dasuki (Rtd.) in a paper presented in Chatham House in London, United Kingdom, called for the postponement of the election giving the same reasons as those previously cited by Yinka Odunmakin and his ‘Co-Analysts’.
Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act provides that an election to the office of the President shall be held on a date not earlier than 150 days and not later than 30 days before the expiration of the term of office of the last holder of that office.
It follows that by the interpretation and construction of the provisions of Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act an election to the office of the President shall not hold 150 days (Five Months) earlier than 29th May, 2015, when the current term of the incumbent (President Jonathan) would expire.
It is logical that election to the Office of the President could not have been scheduled in December, 2014.
The legislature of Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act also says that an election to the Office of the President shall hold not later than 30 days to the date of the expiration of the term of the last holder of the Office.
The Draftsmen of Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act used the phrase “not later than”.
Which calls to question the meaning of the phrase “not later than” used by the Draftsmen of the Electoral Act!
The Advanced English Dictionary defines the phrase “not later than” thus: “By a particular time and not after it”.
It follows that election to the Office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria must be held before the 29th May, 2015, and not after.
On the other hand, Section 132 (1) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended) also provides that election to the Office of President shall be held on a date to be appointed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Section 132 (2) of the Constitution further provides that an election to the Office of the President shall be held on a date not earlier than sixty days and not later than thirty days before the expiration of the term of office of the last holder of that office.
So by Section 132 (2) of the Constitution, election to the office of the President shall be conducted not earlier than two months before May 29th 2015 and not later than 30 days before the expiration of the term of President Jonathan on the 29th May, 2015.
It follows that 60 days and 30 days to the expiration of the term of office of the President means that election must be held on or by 5th May, 2015.
So what is the implication of a shift in the original date of the election to the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as is being advocated in some quarters vis- a-vis the provisions of Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act?
Some proponents of a shift in the election date have suggested that the election should be shifted to June, 2015. It is submitted that any shift in the date of the election to June 2015 or any other date would amount to an infraction of Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act.
It is worthy to note that the term of office of the incumbent President would expire on the mid night of 28th May 2015 when his four years term ends. The incumbent President took the Oath of Office on the 29th May, 2011.
If the term of office of the incumbent President expires on the midnight of 28th May, 2015, the President must vacate office on the 29th of May, 2015. He cannot be found to remain in office by 29th May, 2015, or stay a day longer in office after midnight of 28th May, 2015, if he is not re-elected.
But there must be a government in place in the Country. Without a government there would be total anarchy in the Country.
Some pundits have suggested that there should be an Interim Government put in place to take care of that gap/lapse. The pertinent question would then be: Who would constitute the Interim Government? Is it Dr. Good luck Jonathan whose term would have expired? Would it be the National Assembly whose term would also have expired by the 29th May, 2015? Is an Interim Government contemplated by the Constitution?
Section 25 (2) of the Electoral Act provide thus:
“The date mentioned in subsection (1) of this section shall not be earlier than 150 days and not later than 30 days before the House stands dissolved, or where the election is to fill a vacancy occurring more than 90 days before such date, not later than 30 days”.
Section 76 (1) of the Constitution provides that Elections to each House of the National Assembly shall be held on a date to be appointed by the Independent National Electoral Commission.
Section 76 (2) of the Constitution further stipulates that the date mentioned in Section 76 of the Constitution shall not be earlier than sixty days before and not later than 30 days to the date on which the House stood dissolved, or where the election to fill a vacancy occurring more than three months before such date, not later than one month after the vacancy occurred.
The answers to these questions must be in the negative. There is no place in the Constitution for an Interim Government or the contemplation of one.
The Constitution boldly says that nobody or group of persons should take over government in any way under any guise other than as provided by the Constitution.
Unreservedly Section 1 (2) of the Constitution provide thus:
“The Federal Republic of Nigeria shall not be governed nor shall any persons or group of persons take control of the Government of Nigeria or any part thereof, except in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution”.
There is no gainsaying that any shift in election date now would unleash a constitutional crisis that would shake the foundation of the Country.
Any patriotic Nigerian would have realised that any crisis in view of the current state of the Country (insurgency/political tension et al) would possibly lead to volatility in the Country not anticipated or prepared for!
Let us all thread the path of caution in ensuring that elections that took INEC more than 3 years to prepare for, can be conducted on record time without the mischief and antics of unpatriotic elements. Let us not rock the boat of our ‘loaded’ peace!
Okoi Obono-Obla
Why a shift on election will precipitate a constitutional crisis
Undoubtedly under both the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended) and the provisions of the Electoral Act, 2010 (as amended) the body vested with the power to conduct elections into the Office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria; Offices of the 36 States Governors in the Country; the National and State Assemblies and Chairmanship of the Six Area Councils of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, is the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Accordingly, INEC acting within the ambit of the exclisive power vested on it by the Section 25 (5) of the Electoral Act fixed Saturday the 14th Day of February, 2015, as the date for the holding of election into the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria and the National Assembly respectively.
INEC as stipulated by the provisions of Section 25 (3) & (7) also scheduled election to the Office of the Governors of 32 States (save Edo, Osun, Ondo and Bayelsa States) on the 28th February, 2015.
Consequently INEC started the preparation in earnest for the conduct of the election with commencement of Registration of Voters, Revision of the National Voters Register and the Opening of Campaigns by Political Parties after their submission of Lists of Candidates.
However, the signal that the Federal Government of Nigeria doesn’t want election to hold on the 14th February, 2015, started emerging when some group of ‘Analysts’ led by Yinka Odunmakin appeared (apparently on sponsored programme on African Independent Television – AIT) 3 (three) weeks ago to canvass for the postponement of election on the ground that millions of voters had not collected their Permanent Voters Card (PVC).
Another reason which the Proponents of shift in election date gave is the crisis in the North Eastern Region of the Country that has led to the death of hundreds of people and the displacement of millions of people in that part of the Country.
The agitation by these ‘Analysts’ did not gain the currency or attention of Nigerians until the following week when the National Security Adviser, Colonel Sambo Dasuki (Rtd.) in a paper presented in Chatham House in London, United Kingdom, called for the postponement of the election giving the same reasons as those previously cited by Yinka Odunmakin and his ‘Co-Analysts’.
Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act provides that an election to the office of the President shall be held on a date not earlier than 150 days and not later than 30 days before the expiration of the term of office of the last holder of that office.
It follows that by the interpretation and construction of the provisions of Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act an election to the office of the President shall not hold 150 days (Five Months) earlier than 29th May, 2015, when the current term of the incumbent (President Jonathan) would expire.
It is logical that election to the Office of the President could not have been scheduled in December, 2014.
The legislature of Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act also says that an election to the Office of the President shall hold not later than 30 days to the date of the expiration of the term of the last holder of the Office.
The Draftsmen of Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act used the phrase “not later than”.
Which calls to question the meaning of the phrase “not later than” used by the Draftsmen of the Electoral Act!
The Advanced English Dictionary defines the phrase “not later than” thus: “By a particular time and not after it”.
It follows that election to the Office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria must be held before the 29th May, 2015, and not after.
On the other hand, Section 132 (1) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended) also provides that election to the Office of President shall be held on a date to be appointed by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
Section 132 (2) of the Constitution further provides that an election to the Office of the President shall be held on a date not earlier than sixty days and not later than thirty days before the expiration of the term of office of the last holder of that office.
So by Section 132 (2) of the Constitution, election to the office of the President shall be conducted not earlier than two months before May 29th 2015 and not later than 30 days before the expiration of the term of President Jonathan on the 29th May, 2015.
It follows that 60 days and 30 days to the expiration of the term of office of the President means that election must be held on or by 5th May, 2015.
So what is the implication of a shift in the original date of the election to the office of the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria as is being advocated in some quarters vis- a-vis the provisions of Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act?
Some proponents of a shift in the election date have suggested that the election should be shifted to June, 2015. It is submitted that any shift in the date of the election to June 2015 or any other date would amount to an infraction of Section 25 (6) of the Electoral Act.
It is worthy to note that the term of office of the incumbent President would expire on the mid night of 28th May 2015 when his four years term ends. The incumbent President took the Oath of Office on the 29th May, 2011.
If the term of office of the incumbent President expires on the midnight of 28th May, 2015, the President must vacate office on the 29th of May, 2015. He cannot be found to remain in office by 29th May, 2015, or stay a day longer in office after midnight of 28th May, 2015, if he is not re-elected.
But there must be a government in place in the Country. Without a government there would be total anarchy in the Country.
Some pundits have suggested that there should be an Interim Government put in place to take care of that gap/lapse. The pertinent question would then be: Who would constitute the Interim Government? Is it Dr. Good luck Jonathan whose term would have expired? Would it be the National Assembly whose term would also have expired by the 29th May, 2015? Is an Interim Government contemplated by the Constitution?
Section 25 (2) of the Electoral Act provide thus:
“The date mentioned in subsection (1) of this section shall not be earlier than 150 days and not later than 30 days before the House stands dissolved, or where the election is to fill a vacancy occurring more than 90 days before such date, not later than 30 days”.
Section 76 (1) of the Constitution provides that Elections to each House of the National Assembly shall be held on a date to be appointed by the Independent National Electoral Commission.
Section 76 (2) of the Constitution further stipulates that the date mentioned in Section 76 of the Constitution shall not be earlier than sixty days before and not later than 30 days to the date on which the House stood dissolved, or where the election to fill a vacancy occurring more than three months before such date, not later than one month after the vacancy occurred.
The answers to these questions must be in the negative. There is no place in the Constitution for an Interim Government or the contemplation of one.
The Constitution boldly says that nobody or group of persons should take over government in any way under any guise other than as provided by the Constitution.
Unreservedly Section 1 (2) of the Constitution provide thus:
“The Federal Republic of Nigeria shall not be governed nor shall any persons or group of persons take control of the Government of Nigeria or any part thereof, except in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution”.
There is no gainsaying that any shift in election date now would unleash a constitutional crisis that would shake the foundation of the Country.
Any patriotic Nigerian would have realised that any crisis in view of the current state of the Country (insurgency/political tension et al) would possibly lead to volatility in the Country not anticipated or prepared for!
Let us all thread the path of caution in ensuring that elections that took INEC more than 3 years to prepare for, can be conducted on record time without the mischief and antics of unpatriotic elements. Let us not rock the boat of our ‘loaded’ peace!
Okoi Obono-Obla.






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